According to a controversial poll, 800 seats could go to the Tories in 2022’s local elections.


According to the model, the Tories would lose more that a third of seats up for grabs on May 5, putting Keir Sternmer on track to lead a minority government. Other pollsters laughed at the findings.

The Tories could lose 800 seats and Labour gain 800 in next month’s local elections in England and Wales, shock polling has claimed.

Two firms studied the possibility that Labour would be the largest party at Parliament. However, this is only 15 short of a majority overall if the results are replicated in a general election.

Other pollsters, however, dismissed the Telegraph’s findings and predicted that they would exaggerate the extent of Labour gains in May.

There are 197 council seats up for grabs across Britain, mainly in Labour-held regions.

Electoral Calculus & Find Out Now polled 12,115 people in 201 districts and unitary councils between April 4-8 – this was after many Partygate revelations and before Boris Johnson got a fine by police.

The study forecast that the Tories would lose 810 seats between England and Wales from 1,965 and 1,155 in comparison to their performance last year.

Labour would gain 835 more seats, taking it from 2,887 to 3722. The Lib Dems would lose 13 seats, Plaid Cymru would gain 64 and other parties or non-independents would lose 75.

It predicted that the Tories might lose key councils such as Thurrock, Barnet and Harlow in London and South East.

Many councils are still in existence. ‘no overall control’The study found that Labour could win Bolton, Crawley and Merthyr Tydfil as well as Milton Keynes, Plymouth, and Sheffield.

Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, stated that even if the Tories lose 800 seats in elections, “Boris Johnson will be spared new backbench pressure to unseat him.

“Although the Conservatives will lose some ground in these local elections, it doesn’t look like a catastrophic defeat, and that is a good result for them after their poor poll ratings post-Partygate.”

Chris Curtis is the head of Opinium’s political polling and he retorted: “The chances of the Tories losing this many seats is vanishingly small.

“If they do end up doing this disastrously, then Labour would be the strong favourites to win the next General Election.”

Ben Walker, co-founder of Britain Elects, said: “Tories are defending roughly 1,800 seats this cycle. To lose more than 800 is, to put it politely, a bit far fetched.”

Philip Cowley is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London. “If I had ever written a book on local elections, I would offer to eat it if this happened…”

Chris Bryant, Senior Labour MP, said: “Nonsense. This is just expectation management.”

The Tories won just over 1,500 seats in England and Wales – fewer than this study’s total of nearly 2,000 – the last time they were up for grabs in 2017 and 2018.

Electoral Calculus stated that the difference was mainly due to boundary changes in Wales. Additionally, there have been some changes in allegiance for individual councillors and by-elections.

Nick Fox from Find Out Now stated: “We’re expecting the results to confirm the headway that Starmer has been making in the polls, but the council gains we have predicted for Labour haven’t translated to Conservative losses, so it’s not a result that will give Johnson any real unrest.

“Whether this is the end of the Partygate scandal or we are seeing its effects temporarily diffused by the conflict in Ukraine remains to be seen.”